Uganda’s economy grew by 5.2 per cent in the twelve months to June, revised from an initial estimate of 5.3 per cent, driven by a rebound in goods exports, professional, scientific and technical activities, and food production output.
This is the fastest growth in four years, but is still 1.2 per cent below pre-coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic levels, according to unadjusted estimates released Monday by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth was recorded at 6.4 per cent in the 2018/2019 fiscal year, before falling to 3 per cent in 2019/20. It is estimated to have increased by 4.6 per cent in FY2021/22 and by 3.5 per cent in 2020/21.
The estimates show a rebound in export orders, with [foreigners’] expenditure on goods exports up 28.2 per cent year on year, compared with a fall of 26.3 per cent in the previous year. This reflects the resumption of gold exports earlier this year, following the suspension of a tax on mineral exports introduced in 2021, which had led to a halt in gold exports.
GDP per capita at constant prices increased from $1,055 to $1,162. Gross national income per capita – measured at current prices – rose from $1,025 in the previous financial year to $1,071, below the World Bank’s lower-middle income threshold of $1,086. Ubos used a mid-year population estimate of 45.1 million to calculate GNI per capita, well below the World Bank estimate of 47.3 million.
The services sector accounted for 51.8 per cent of economic growth, expanding by 6.2 per cent year on year. It was also the largest sector, accounting for 43.8 per cent of output at constant prices over the year. Overall, 23 of the 25 sub-sectors recorded growth, with only cash crops and transport & storage contracting over the year.
Industrial production output accounted for 26.1 per cent of total GDP, while agriculture, forestry, and fishing accounted for 23.2 per cent. Agricultural expansion accounted for 21.3 per cent of total GDP growth, while industrial growth accounted for 17.7 per cent. The agricultural sector grew by 4.8 per cent year on year, while industry grew by 3.5 per cent.
At the sub-sector level, the largest contributors to output growth were professional, scientific and technical activities, which accounted for 11.5 per cent of growth, food crops 10.9 per cent, real estate 9.9 per cent and trade and repairs 9 per cent.
Meanwhile, the fastest growing sector year on year was professional, scientific and technical activities, rising 28.6 per cent, followed by administrative and support services (17.8 per cent), hotels and restaurants (12.4 per cent), information and communication (10.3 per cent) and animal production (8.8 per cent).
Final consumption expenditure growth was slightly higher than last year at 4.4 per cent, versus 4.3 per cent. This was due to the slower growth of both general government consumption expenditure and consumption by non-profit institutions serving households. Household consumption expenditure however increased by 4.4 per cent yearly, up from 3.8 per cent the previous year.
Expenditure on gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 6.3 per cent, a slowdown of 1 per cent on the previous year. Meanwhile, expenditure on other structures, a sub-component of GFCF, grew by 8.3 per cent compared to 0.7 per cent last year. Expenditure on research and development increased by 108.3 per cent, compared to a decrease of 8.5 per cent in the previous year, while expenditure on transport equipment rose 31 per cent from 7.1 per cent in the previous year.
The implied GDP deflator, which is the broadest measure of inflation in the economy and reflects changes in the prices of all goods and services that make up GDP, and captures movements in the terms-of-trade, increased by 8 per cent compared to the previous financial year’s 4.9 per cent. Service prices rose 8.8 per cent compared to 5 per cent last year. Similarly, industry sector prices increased by 6.4 per cent from 2.9 per cent the previous year. Prices in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector increased by 7.3 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent.
Inflation was highest in the mining and quarrying subsector at 44.9 per cent, followed by transport and storage (38.2 per cent) and trade and repairs (17.9 per cent). Electricity prices, on the other hand, fell by 7.5 per cent and for the third consecutive year, while prices in the information and communication subsector fell by 6.3 per cent and for the fourth consecutive year.
