GDP grew 5.5% in third quarter, driven by output in the industrial sector

Growth driven by output of mining and quarrying and manufacturing subsectors

Hima Cement's plant in Kasese, western Uganda
Hima Cement’s plant in Kasese © Hima Cement

Uganda’s economy grew at its fastest pace in four quarters in the three months to September, driven by mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and the information and communication sub-sector.

Gross domestic product grew by 5.5 per cent year-on-year, following an increase of 5 per cent in the previous quarter, according to seasonally adjusted estimates released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

However, using the bureau’s preferred original unadjusted estimates, the economy expanded by 5.3 per cent, slower than the 5.4 per cent (revised) growth recorded in the quarter to June.

In output terms, the seasonally adjusted estimates show that the industrial and agricultural sectors expanded at a healthy clip compared to the previous quarter, while the services sector slowed down.

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing output rose 4 per cent on year, following a fall of 3 per cent in the previous quarter. Output in industry grew by 11 per cent, compared with 5.7 per cent in the previous quarter, while output in the services sector slowed from 8.2 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

Growth in industrial output was largely driven by value added in mining and quarrying, which increased by 140.6 per cent compared to the previous year, up from 55 per cent. In addition, the mining and quarrying subsector contributed almost a third — 32 per cent — to GDP growth in terms of output. Manufacturing, on the other hand, grew by 5.3 per cent, versus a 1.5 per cent fall in the quarter to June.

After industry, agriculture was the second largest contributor to GDP growth. The expansion of the sector was the result of growth in the forestry and livestock sub-sectors, both at a faster rate than in the previous quarter. However, cash crops continued to decline.

The expansion of output in the services sector was driven by information and communication, hotels and restaurants, and the trade and repairs sub-sectors, all of which recovered strongly from the previous quarter. On the other hand, the slower growth in the sector was due to falls in professional, scientific and technical services, and the public administration sub-sectors.