Uganda’s annual inflation rose to 4.6 per cent in September from 4.1 per cent in August, its highest since June 2023, as food prices rebounded and fuel costs stayed high, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

Consumer prices rose 0.9 per cent in the month, against 0.3 per cent in August. It was the fastest monthly increase since September 2022, when prices rose 1.5 per cent.

Food crops and related items drove the move. Prices in the category rose 7 per cent, the largest monthly increase in the category in UBOS’s rebased series, which starts in July 2017, with matooke up 16 per cent, sweet potatoes 13 per cent, milk 7.3 per cent and beans 6.3 per cent.

The category carries 9.5 per cent of the consumer basket. By our calculation from the bureau’s weights and index levels, it supplied about 0.6 percentage points of the month’s rise. The wider division of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which carries 27 per cent of the basket, rose 2.6 per cent, the most since October 2022.

Core prices rose 0.3 per cent and energy, fuel and utilities 0.5 per cent. Petrol rose 1.5 per cent after no change in August, and diesel 1.8 per cent compared to 0.8 per cent the previous month.

Annual inflation has risen in each of the past six months from a low of 2.8 per cent in March. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food and is closely watched by the central bank as a gauge of underlying price pressures, rose to 3.7 per cent from 3.5 per cent, the highest since September 2025. Core goods inflation was 3.1 per cent, while services inflation was 4.6 per cent.

Energy, fuel and utilities inflation edged up to 14.5 per cent on the year from 14.3 per cent, below July’s 14.9 per cent, the highest since October 2022. The category carries 6.5 per cent of the basket, yet by the same calculation it supplies about one percentage point of the 4.6 per cent annual rate.

Petrol cost 30.9 per cent more than a year earlier and diesel 42.5 per cent more, the highest rates for each since late 2022. A litre averaged Shs6,642 for petrol and Shs6,757 for diesel, against Shs5,080 and Shs4,736 in September 2025.

Food crops and related items inflation accelerated to 4.5 per cent on the year from 2.1 per cent, with cabbage up 34.4 per cent, fresh cassava 29.3 per cent and milk 11.3 per cent. Matooke averaged Shs1,125 a kilogram, below the Shs1,189 of a year earlier.

Transport inflation was 9.8 per cent on the year, the highest since July 2021. In Jinja it reached 11.7 per cent.

Kampala’s high-income group recorded the highest rate of the ten urban centres and income groups tracked, at 5.1 per cent, followed by Jinja and Mbale at 4.9 per cent. Inflation among Kampala’s low-income households rose to 4.8 per cent from 4.1 per cent. Mbarara had the lowest, at 2.9 per cent, unchanged from August.

The rise leaves inflation 0.4 percentage points below the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5 per cent. In August the central bank held its policy rate at 9.75 per cent and forecast headline inflation of 5.5 per cent to 6 per cent over the next 12 months.

Analysts at BMI, part of Fitch Group, expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the central bank rate to 10 per cent on 12 November.