Uganda’s coffee exports fell 14.9 per cent by volume in July, as farmers and traders absorbed the effects of a smaller Robusta crop even as unit prices firmed for a second month.

Shipments totalled 846,376 60-kilogram bags worth $204.1m in July, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries. That compares with 995,071 bags worth $250.1mn in July 2025, a decline of 18.4 per cent in value.

Robusta, which accounts for the bulk of Uganda’s coffee output, dropped 15 per cent in volume to 775,148 bags. Arabica exports fell a comparatively modest 13.8 per cent to 71,228 bags. The average export price rose to $4 a kilogram, from $3.9 in June, though it remained below the $4.2 recorded a year earlier.

The ministry attributed the monthly decline to the tail end of the harvest in Greater Masaka and the south-west, alongside a global price rally driven by weather concerns in Brazil and tighter supplies of readily deliverable Arabica.

For the twelve months to July, Uganda’s coffee sector told a more encouraging story. Exports rose 3.4 per cent to 8.2mn bags, a record for the period, even as total earnings slipped 4.8 per cent to $2.13bn. The ministry linked the divergence to rising global output, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam, which has weighed on international prices despite stronger volumes from Uganda.

Italy remained Uganda’s largest single destination, though its share slipped to 29.3 per cent from 31.1 per cent in June. Sudan and Germany followed. African markets absorbed a growing share of exports, rising to 24 per cent of volume from 21 per cent the previous month, while Europe held steady as the dominant destination at 62 per cent.

Farm-gate prices continued to climb. Robusta Kiboko averaged Shs5,500 a kilogram in July, up from Shs5,250 in June, while the FAQ grade rose to Shs11,500. Arabica parchment eased slightly to Shs15,000.

The ministry projects exports will recover to roughly 850,000 bags in August. Globally, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts world coffee production will reach a record 189.7m bags in the 2026/27 season, with Uganda among the countries expected to post record output alongside Brazil, Ethiopia and Vietnam — a dynamic likely to keep pressure on prices even as global consumption climbs to a projected 179.7mn bags.