Uganda’s economy ended 2021 on a high note, its continued expansion in the fourth quarter marking four consecutive quarters of growth and underlining a full-year rebound that indicates the country could have seen the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Gross domestic product expanded 4.9 per cent year on year in the last three months of the year, up from 3.9 per cent in the third quarter, according to seasonally adjusted estimates from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. That means the economy expanded in all four quarters of 2021, a marked contrast from the previous year when growth was negative in all but the first quarter.
The economy grew 3.1 per cent compared with the previous quarter, up from a decline of 1.3 per cent in the third quarter. For the full year, GDP rose 5.9 per cent, rebounding from 2020’s fall of 1.7 per cent (revised) — the first time full-year growth declined in more than a decade.
GDP growth in the quarter was supported by expansions in services and industry. Services rose 8.9 per cent from the previous year, while industry expanded by 6.7 per cent. Output in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector declined by 1.6 per cent, on the other hand.
In particular, mining and quarrying, which is part of the industry sector, and education services had the largest impact on economic growth.
Mining and quarrying output rose 142.4 per cent on-year, driven by activity in the oil and gas sub-sector ahead of the final investment decision on Uganda’s projects, announced in February.
Education was the biggest contributor to services growth — universities and other higher education institutions reopened last November after a prolonged closure in response to the coronavirus, while secondary schools and lower institutions reopened in January — while professional, scientific and technical services, information and communication services, and accommodation and food services also contributed significantly.
Related: Uganda’s prolonged closure of schools: the impact is deep and uneven
Compared to the previous quarter, the economy returned to growth after declining 1.3 per cent in the third quarter. That means GDP expanded in two quarters in 2001 – the second and fourth quarters – and declined in two; growth in the first quarter fell 1.3 per cent.
Mining and quarrying activities were the biggest contributor to quarter-on-quarter economic growth, rising to Shs1.1 trillion from Shs322bn in the third quarter. The expansion was also supported by accommodation and food services, up 23.6 per cent, and a 9.8 per cent increase in human health and social work services.
