The IMF has raised its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa, crediting improved macroeconomic management in several large economies and resilience amid external pressures.
The fund now expects output to expand 4.1 per cent this year, up from an April projection of 3.8 per cent, and anticipates a modest pickup in 2026, according to its regional economic outlook released on Thursday.
In April, the fund cited “an abrupt shift in the external economic landscape” driven by new US tariffs, retaliatory trade measures, and cuts to aid flows, warning these would depress demand, weaken commodity prices, and tighten financial conditions.
The IMF now says most African economies are less directly exposed than initially feared. Although “global growth is strained, and the outlook for commodity prices remains uneven,” external conditions have eased somewhat since April as sovereign spreads narrowed and portfolio inflows resumed.
Still, risks remain tilted to the downside. Fragile and low-income states face disproportionate pressure from reduced aid flows, threatening essential services, whilst others continue navigating trade tensions and tighter financing.
