Softer global prices weigh on March coffee export revenues

Higher production lifted shipments even as arabica exports contracted year on year

A detailed shot of the coffee brewing process, showing golden-brown bubbles forming on saturated grounds in a manual pour-over dripper.
Coffee export volumes increased modestly in March, while weaker international prices cut revenues © Unsplash

Uganda’s coffee exports rose modestly in March, but weaker global prices meant that earnings were lower.

The country exported 671,152 60-kilogram bags during the month, valued at $173.4mn (Shs646.7bn), according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries. Volumes increased 3.2 per cent year on year, while earnings declined 13.6 per cent.

The average export price fell to $4.31 per kilogram, down from $4.63 in February and $5.14 in March last year, reflecting softer global prices amid improved supply expectations.

Robusta exports accounted for about 85 per cent of total shipments and rose 7 per cent in volume to 567,405 bags. However, earnings from the variety declined 20.8 per cent to $134mn as prices weakened.

Robusta fetched an average of $3.94 per kilogram, compared with $4.06 in February. Organic robusta commanded the highest price at $5.12 per kilogram.

Arabica exports fell 13.8 per cent by volume to 103,747 bags, while earnings declined 10.5 per cent to $39.4mn. The variety accounted for roughly 15 per cent of total exports.

Arabica fetched an average of $6.32 per kilogram, down from $6.72 in February. Mt Elgon A+ recorded the highest price at $9.84 per kilogram.

Farm-gate prices continued to decline during the month, with robusta kiboko averaging Shs5,650 per kilogram, down from Shs5,750 in February. Arabica parchment prices also eased to Shs15,000 per kilogram.

The ministry attributed the increase in export volumes to higher domestic production, while noting that prices continued to decline in line with global trends as expectations of improved supply strengthened.

World coffee production in the 2025/26 season is forecast to reach a record 178.8mn bags, according to the United States Department of Agriculture, driven by recoveries in Vietnam and stronger output in Indonesia and Ethiopia.

For the 12 months to March, Uganda exported 8.8mn bags worth $2.4bn, compared with 6.9mn bags valued at $1.8bn in the previous period — increases of 28 per cent and 36 per cent respectively.

Europe remained the largest destination, accounting for 62 per cent of shipments — up from 58 per cent in February. Italy retained the largest market share at 32.2 per cent, followed by Sudan with 11 per cent and Germany with 8 per cent.

African markets accounted for 21 per cent of exports, slightly lower than the previous month’s 22 per cent share. Sudan, Morocco and Algeria remained among the leading regional buyers.

The ministry projects exports of around 680,000 bags in April as the main harvest season in Greater Masaka and south-western Uganda reaches its peak.

($1 = Shs3,730.53, March period average)