Foreign purchases of Ugandan government debt fell by 97.4 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, according to Bank of Uganda balance of payments data released on Monday.

Purchases peaked at $990mn in October to December 2025, the largest quarter in a series that runs back to 2001, and came to $25.5mn in April to June. Purchases in the first half of 2026 were 68.6 per cent below those of the first half of 2025.

The 12 months to December 2025 brought $2.2bn, almost five times the previous calendar-year high, set in 2021. Net portfolio investment, which measures foreign purchases of Ugandan shares and bonds less Ugandan purchases abroad, covered 68.2 per cent of that year’s current account deficit.

The bank’s investment position tables put non-resident holdings of government debt at $878mn at the end of 2024 and $2.9bn a year later.

Holdings fell 7.4 per cent in January to March and were little changed in April to June. At $2.7bn, they equal 40.2 per cent of the central bank’s gross reserves.

Yields on the 364-day Treasury bill averaged 14.9 per cent in November 2025 and 11.5 per cent in September 2026. The sharpest monthly fall came in February, in the quarter after purchases peaked.

The five-year bond cleared at 13.74 per cent at the 23 September auction, against 16.25 per cent on 26 November 2025. Yields on the 15-year and 25-year bonds fell by 2.5 and 1.7 percentage points over the same period.

A dollar bought Shs3,464 on average in October 2025 and Shs3,869 in September 2026, and more than Shs4,000 at the close on Wednesday.

Absa, the lender, attributes part of the dollar demand to offshore investors who have trimmed holdings or hedged them with dollar purchases, as we reported on Tuesday. The bank’s flow data show net purchases in every quarter since the start of 2025, which does not rule out sales by individual investors. Holdings, now $208.5mn below their December level, can fall on valuation as well as on sales.

Foreign direct investment, which refers to money put into Ugandan companies by owners holding at least 10 per cent, brought in $845mn in April to June, against $25.5mn of net purchases of government debt.

Holdings came in $777mn below what net purchases implied in October to December and $396mn below in January to March, the two largest gaps in 58 quarters. A change in a position equals transactions plus revaluation and other changes in volume, according to the IMF. BoU’s tables do not give the split.

Net errors and omissions, the balancing item for unrecorded transactions and measurement error, were -$917mn in January to March, the largest negative in 100 quarters of data.